Thursday, February 20, 2014

Winter: Who Predicts it Better - The Government or the Farmers?

Nobody in Washington even saw it coming! Winter, I mean.

“Surprised by how tough this winter has been? You’re in good company: Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states.”

0213_C04If I’d known it was going to be so cold, I might have signed up for Obamacare, or at least bought some gloves.

In fact, your Government completely mis-predicted this winter’s weather.

The center grades itself on what it calls the Heidke skill score, which ranges from 100 (perfection) to -50 (monkeys throwing darts would have done better). October’s forecast for the three-month period of November through January came in at -22.Truth be told, the September prediction for October-December was slightly worse, at -23.

That’s about the same as the average temperature across much of the Midwest and Northeast for the same 3 month period. Apparently this problem was caused by a familiar Washington hob-goblin:

“The main cause in both cases was the same: Underestimating the mammoth December cold wave,”

Sure enough, that would do it. Although for some reason “mis-underestimating” is a lot funnier when you’re talking about the George W. Bush years than when you’re talking about the Obama years -

snowy pile-up

in which case it’s about as funny as a 40 vehicle pile-up. Or an icy Atlanta road inundated with recidivist ice.

Winter Weather Georgia

Butt not everyone mis-underestimated this winter’s velocity. Do you know who got it right? The dumb, old fashioned, un-scientific (by post-modern science standards) predictable Farmer’s Almanac, that’s who.

farmers almanac3

Nor did it take long for the more sophisticated prognosticators at the Washington Post to have a field day when the Farmer’s Almanac’s predictions came out last August - probably because they had already read the official Government  Forecast for the Winter of 2013-14:

“The Farmers’ Almanac is generating a tremendous amount of buzz around a “C-O-L-D” winter forecast.  And it’s ratcheting up the hype by forecasting a “Super Storm” for Super Bowl XLVIII at the Meadowlands in New Jersey.  But its forecast is baseless and lacks credibility.”

meadowlands prior to super bowlThe Meadowlands, just ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, filled with baseless hype that needs to be removed.

What a hoot, no? The dumb old Farmer’s Almanac predicted a cold winter! When just about everyone knows we’re immersed in global warming. Is everyone LOL yet?  The WaPo surely was; they continued their mockery of “the old ones’ ways.”

“If you believe it, residents of the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast may want to start stocking up on warm weather gear, snow shovels, and salt right now! The Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a “bitterly cold” winter for much of the region.

Yes, the Farmers’ Almanac believes that the ‘days of shivery’ are back, says the Farmer’s Almanac press release.

‘…fans, players, and travelers alike may want to leave a few days early and pack extra warm, waterproof weather gear,’ the Almanac’s press release advises.”


Take the Almanac with a huge grain of salt.”

Milw_road_salt_pile-cropSalt Piles, awaiting clearance to be shipped to the Eastern Seaboard

Do so at your own peril I’d say. And by the way, I understand there’s a huge demand right now for road salt. I hope Homeland Security releases it soon.

Finally the WaPo “Capital Weather Gang” wrapped up their August article with this huge heresy:

“Let me state emphatically that no one – with any degree of accuracy – can predict the specific days when cold snaps or storms will occur months in advance.”

Oh reall-y! Perhaps they’ve never heard of a little thing called…globull warming.

Oh sure, I hear the critics now: “Weather and climate are two totally different things, MORON!” Which always makes for a fun argument on the blogs, however, I should note that the government’s official winter forecast – which cost way more than the Farmer’s Almanac’s - was not based on short term weather forecasting models, butt rather the same type of long range climate models that they use to develop their long term “climate change” forecasts.

Tsk: that’s not so good for the would be masters of the universe who would have us hand over the keys to the kingdom to the United Nations in order to redistribute the carbon credits that made Al Gorlione so rich.

So what’s the take away from today’s lesson? It’s a riddle:  Who can you trust: a) your Government (If you like your plan, you can keep your plan. Period.” or b) The Farmer’s Almanac, who just predicts the weather for fun and a little profit?

Choose wisely, weedhopper.

crop-circles_weed2Mysterious crop circles appearing along the southern border: some blame global warming.

Before I go, here’s a quick look at what’s ahead for the rest of the week:

  • Watch for Bo in Mexico to talk trade – touchy subject; the last time somebody talked trades with the Mexicans a whole passel of guns went missing and many people died. Maybe he can fix that.
  • Olympics in Sochi. (woo-hoo! we’ve got more medals than the Ruski’s – not that anyone’s counting)
  • And tomorrow, Lady M on the new and improved Tonight show - now with 99% fewer Obama jokes! Which is one of the primary reasons Lady M will be appearing on Jimmy Fallon’s show to help bolster his first week’s ratings. Think of it as another fair trade deal.

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Cross-Posted on Patriot Action Network